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Money & Taxes
Budget for Toronto
All figures in $ millions unless stated. Every figure is a planning estimate to be confirmed by City Finance and the TTC.
Free TTC in three stages
| Stage | Who rides free | Cost per year | City money | Gap | Paid by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 (Year 1) | Seniors, youth 13-19, post-secondary students, Fair Pass (low-income) riders | $202–238M | $175–232M | -$30M to +$63M (surplus to gap) | Parking levy (starting rate) + new luxury land-transfer step |
| Stage 2 (Year 2) | Stage 1 groups + everyone on evenings and weekends | $458–524M | $455–540M | -$82M to +$69M (surplus to gap) | Parking levy (full rate) + luxury step |
| Stage 3 (Years 3-4) | Everyone, all the time | $1,054–1,154M | $503–588M | $466–651M | City sources + PRESTO savings; the gap is the Queen’s Park / Ottawa share |
Gap = cost minus city money (negative = surplus). Low gap pairs low cost with high city money; high gap pairs high cost with low city money.
Stage 1 starts only once the parking levy is billing (City staff: 12-18 months to set up). If the levy lands at the low end, Stage 1 opens with seniors, youth and Fair Pass riders, and students join when the money is in place.
Year one: the first full budget (2027)
| Line | Low | High | Who it helps | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelter: reverse the $126M cut, end turn-aways | $60M | $126M | Homeless residents, women, families | Restore 2026 cut |
| of which: 200 women-only shelter and respite spaces | $18M | $18M | Women | Spaces x cost per space (inside the shelter line, not added) |
| Residential property-tax freeze (one year) | $77M | $168M | Homeowners, seniors on fixed incomes | Value of 1% x increase given up |
| Child care Phase 1: clear subsidy waitlist + $0 for low-income families | $25M | $48M | Working parents, single mothers | City share if Ontario cost-shares 80/20 |
| Hot lunch: highest-need schools first | $15M | $25M | Children | Allocation |
| Mental-health crisis response | $15M | $20M | People in crisis | Allocation |
| Seniors and people with disabilities: help at home | $8M | $12M | Seniors, people with disabilities | Allocation |
| Youth: permanent programs, year-round hubs | $10M | $15M | Youth | Allocation |
| Eviction prevention and tenant legal help | $5M | $10M | Renters | Allocation |
| Forensic budget review + rental-registry business case | $3M | $6M | Taxpayers | Allocation |
| Total new costs (excluding free TTC) | $218M | $430M | ||
| Less: police increase avoided by holding at $1.43B | -$90M | -$40M | ||
| Savings the forensic review must find | $128M | $390M | ||
| as a share of the $18.9B operating budget | 0.7% | 2.1% |
| Paid separately | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Free TTC Stage 1 (ring-fenced: paid only by the parking levy and luxury step, never by review savings) | $202M | $238M |
| Small-business tax cut 20% to 25%: shifted from the largest commercial properties (net cost to City: $0) | $17M | $28M |
Order of protection if the review finds less: (1) shelter, women’s spaces, mental health, seniors and disability supports; (2) property-tax freeze; (3) child care, school lunch and youth lines scale to the savings found.
Four-year view
| Line (midpoint, $M per year) | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free TTC (cost) | $220M | $491M | $1,104M | $1,104M | Stages 1, 2, 3 |
| Free TTC paid by city sources | $204M | $498M | $546M | $546M | Levy, luxury step, PRESTO savings |
| Free TTC: Queen’s Park / Ottawa share needed | $17M | $0M | $559M | $559M | 2027 figure: Stage 1 opens smaller if the levy lands low; Stage 3 starts only with a partner |
| Property-tax freeze (base revenue given up) | $123M | $123M | $123M | $123M | Carries forward unless recovered |
| Property Tax Geared to Income | $0M | $23M | $45M | $68M | Grows each year of protection |
| Shelter, mental health, seniors, disability, youth, tenants | $141M | $141M | $141M | $141M | Held at Year 1 level |
| Child care (city share) | $36M | $36M | $36M | $36M | Phase 2 universal $0 needs a federal/provincial partner |
| Hot school lunch (city share) | $20M | $40M | $70M | $70M | Toward a one-third city share of a full program |
Key assumptions
| Assumption | Value | Unit | Source or basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transit | |||
| TTC passenger revenue, 2026 (conventional $1,044.9M + Wheel-Trans $9.6M) | 1,054.5 | $M | TTC 2026 Operating Budget, Appendix A (Jan 7, 2026) |
| PRESTO commissions, 2026 (saved when fares end) | 48.4 | $M | TTC 2026 Operating Budget, Appendix A |
| Conventional revenue rides, 2026 | 426.4 | million rides | TTC 2026 Operating Budget, Table 4 |
| Share of rides by seniors, youth, post-secondary and Fair Pass riders | 22%–26% | Campaign estimate: seniors ~7% of rides (TTC/City 2023 report); other groups estimated; TTC to confirm | |
| Average fare paid by those riders | $2.15 | per ride | Campaign estimate from 2026 concession fares ($2.10-$2.35) and pass prices |
| Evening and weekend share of remaining fare revenue | 30%–35% | Campaign estimate; TTC to confirm | |
| Extra service needed when ridership grows under full free transit | 0–100 | $M/yr | Campaign allowance |
| Commercial parking levy, starting rate (~25-50 cents per space per day) | 150–182 | $M/yr | City staff report, Feb 14 2024 (Table 3: $181.8M at $6/m2; $100-150M two-zone) |
| Commercial parking levy, full rate (~$1.50 per space per day) | 430–490 | $M/yr | KPMG 2016 / City 2021 revenue options ($191-575M at $1.50/day) |
| New top land-transfer-tax step on sales over $3M | 25–50 | $M/yr | Campaign estimate; Dec 2025 increase raised ~$138M (CP24) |
| Property Tax | |||
| Revenue from a 1% residential tax increase | 35–42 | $M | Derived: $91.53 = 2.2% on average home (~$4,160 bill) x ~820,000 properties; 2024 staff: 9% = $380M |
| Residential increase given up in the freeze year | 2.2%–4% | Low = repeat of 2026’s 2.2%; high = 4% | |
| Property Tax Geared to Income: added cost per year from Year 2 | 15–30 | $M/yr | Campaign estimate; City Finance to cost with CRA income data |
| Child Care And School Food | |||
| Children on fee-subsidy waitlist (Dec 31, 2025) | 16,367 | children | City of Toronto Children’s Services fact sheet, Dec 2025 |
| Annual subsidy cost per child | $6,000–$10,000 | Campaign estimate (mix of under-6 CWELCC and school-age care) | |
| City share of new subsidies if province cost-shares 80/20 | 20% | Ontario fee-subsidy cost-sharing; to confirm | |
| Remove remaining fees for low-income families | 5–15 | $M/yr | Campaign estimate |
| Hot lunch, Year 1 city funding (highest-need schools first) | 15–25 | $M/yr | Allocation; current city school-food share ~$31-32M |
| People Who Need It Most | |||
| Reverse the 2026 shelter cut (no turn-aways, women-only and family spaces) | 60–126 | $M/yr | 2026 cut: $912M to $786M (On the Record, Feb 2026) |
| Cost of one shelter space for a year | $88,000 | Derived: $786M / ~8,925 people sheltered nightly | |
| New women-only shelter and respite spaces | 200 | spaces | Campaign commitment |
| Mental-health crisis response (Toronto Community Crisis Service) | 15–20 | $M/yr | Allocation |
| Seniors and people with disabilities: help to age at home | 8–12 | $M/yr | Allocation |
| Youth: permanent programs and year-round hubs | 10–15 | $M/yr | Allocation |
| Eviction prevention and free tenant legal help | 5–10 | $M/yr | Allocation |
| Forensic budget review and rental-registry business case | 3–6 | $M (Year 1) | Allocation |
| Small Business And Offsets | |||
| Municipal tax paid by ~28,000 small-business properties | 336–560 | $M | Campaign estimate: $12,000-$20,000 average x 28,000 |
| Raise small-business tax cut by (20% to 25% in Year 1) | 5% | Campaign commitment, toward the 35% maximum | |
| Police increase avoided by holding at $1.43B | 40–90 | $M/yr | Recent increases: $46.2M (2025), $93.8M (2026) |
Sources
- City of Toronto, 2026 Budget now final
- TTC, Recommended 2026 Operating Budget (Jan 7, 2026)
- City of Toronto, Implementation of a Commercial Parking Levy (Feb 14, 2024)
- City of Toronto, Early Learning & Child Care fact sheet, Dec 2025
- On the Record, 2026 budget passes (police, shelter figures)
- CP24, Council approves luxury land transfer tax hike (Dec 17, 2025)
- CBC, 2024 staff budget (9% = $380M)
- CP24, KPMG parking-levy estimates
- City of Toronto, Universal School Food Program vision (2025)
